Insights Toolkit updated for new ZEV Mandate details

Our latest EV and EVI projections are now live on the Insights Toolkit.  Previous version (V5 and V4) are still available for those that want continuity.

The new projections have been updated to take account of the ZEV Mandate policy (published on 6th April 2025), which has reduced the uncertainty around the overall shape of UK EV uptake in the future, but introduced some nuances into how this may be achieved.

A key part of the policy updates is the introduction of greater freedom on how vehicle manufacturers can 'borrow' credits to meet the targets or improve the carbon impact of non-zero emission vehicle sales.  As a result, we have revised our projections in two ways.

1) Introduction of "borrowing":

Our scenarios are now defined as follows:

  • "High" - Assumes that EV sales do not achieve the ZEV Mandate targets.  Manufacturers borrow the maximum number of credits and successfully pay them back by 2030, which results in a higher number of ZEV sales in the long-run. 

  • "Mid" - Assumes that EV sales achieve the ZEV Mandate targets and manufacturers don't need to borrow credits at all.

  • "Low" - Pessimistically assumes that EV sales do not achieve the ZEV Mandate targets and the maximum number of credits are borrowed.  However, these are not paid-back by 2030.

2) Introduction of the Car Carbon Trading Scheme and Van Carbon Trading Scheme:

The CCTS and VCTS allowances were extended in the ZEV Mandate policy update.  These allow fewer EVs to be sold if non-ZEV emissions are reduced by either making ICE vehicles more efficient or replacing them with hybrids.

All three scenarios now factor-in assumptions around how these allowances will be used.

Comparison to version 5:

For those looking to compare with previous projections, the new scenarios are broadly aligned with the version 5 'Low' scenario, which assumed the ZEV Mandate targets will be followed.

Details:

As always, you can read the ⁠long-form assumptions document which gives a more detailed overview for those that want it

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